2025

Granvik, Patrik; Hanski, Jyri; Lähdesmäki, Seppo; Jokilaakso, Ari; Huttunen-Saarivirta, Elina

The sufficiency of critical raw materials (CRMs) is crucial for the green transition, driven by increased demand in technologies, like EVs and renewable energy. A Scenario Forecast Tool (SFT) has been introduced to predict future CRM demand and supply. The high demand scenario revealed more than tenfold relative increase for lithium and cobalt from 2021 to 2050. For magnet materials, the most significant growth was forecasted for dysprosium, fourfold from 2021 to 2040. Using SFT we identified Key Parameters impacting CRM sufficiency and employed a Feasibility Index (FI) to develop realistic strategies for balancing CRM demand and supply. We demonstrated that with an FI75 value, the demand for most metals could be satisfied independently of used scenario. However, for certain metals, like lithium, FI75 did not meet the demand in high demand scenario. FI enables weighing the relative importance of KPs, a foundation for an activity roadmap for CRM sufficiency.