2024

El Wali, Mohammad; Rahimpour Golroudbary, Saeed; Kraslawski, Andrzej; Tuomisto, Hanna L.

Cellular agriculture, that is, the production of cultured meat and microbial proteins, has been developed to provide food security for a growing world population. The use of green energy technologies is recommended to ensure the sustainability of changing traditional agriculture to a cellular one. Here, we use a global dynamic model and life-cycle assessment to analyze scenarios of replacing traditional livestock products with cellular agriculture from 2020 to 2050. Our findings indicate that a transition to cellular agriculture by 2050 could reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions by 52%, compared to current agriculture emissions, reduce demand for phosphorus by 53%, and use 83% less land than traditional agriculture. A maximum 72% replacement of livestock products with cellular agriculture using renewable energy is possible based on the 2050 regional green energy capacities. A complete transition can be achieved but requires 33% of the global green energy capacities in 2050. Further, the accelerated demand for critical materials will not exceed their primary production capacities, except for tellurium. We conclude that a transition to cellular agriculture is possible with environmental benefits and provide a benchmark to study different alternatives to animal-based diets.