Detectable circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) has been associated with worse prognosis in melanoma patients. We studied plasma ctDNA as a prognostic biomarker in 19 patients with metastatic melanoma and a detectable tumor mutation (13 BRAF, 5 NRAS, and 1 KRAS). Patients had received chemotherapy, interferon-alpha, and vemurafenib in a prospective clinical trial. Mutant allele frequency (MAF %) was determined with droplet digital PCR from pretreatment and sequential plasma samples. Higher pretreatment plasma ctDNA levels (MAF ≥3%) and detectable plasma ctDNA levels (MAF >0%) at the time of radiologically confirmed best objective response were associated with poor prognosis even when accounting for other relevant prognostic factors including performance status, tumor mutation, metastasis stage, and lactate dehydrogenase levels in multivariable analysis. Higher pretreatment plasma ctDNA levels and sustained detectable plasma ctDNA levels during treatment indicated poor prognosis in metastatic melanoma patients.

2022