Given the threats imposed by pathogens, the ability to dilute disease risk is a key determinant of fitness. Host diversity both within and among species is rapidly changing due to anthropogenic global change, yet how this affects disease risk is poorly understood. The main aim of this proposal is to uncover how the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms underpinning disease risk are altered following biodiversity change. The planned work utilizes 30-years of spatiotemporal data on the distribution and size of Plantago lanceolata populations in the Åland Islands across ~3,500 sites, and temporal plant community data. The project couples analysis of plant time-series data with contemporary sampling of microbial communities, local adaptation assays and controlled inoculations. The obtained results provide a blueprint for future biodiversity studies and management strategies on how to account for context dependency and evolution when measuring and forecasting disease risk.

2024

2028